The EU grows ever larger and stronger, but there is a notable absence. Deep within the Alps, Switzerland watches impassively but considers whether its future will be on the outside looking in, or as a reluctant member of the Union.

By Nathaniel Tishman

June 1945: Germany lay in ruins, France was trying to recover its spirit after years of Nazi subjugation, and Russia was just beginning a long and downward spiral into misery. Meanwhile from their perch of neutrality on Europe’s rooftop, Switzerland was looking on unharmed, watching the suffering of their neighbors. Out of the ashes of World War II, the nations of Europe realized that something had to be done to prevent World War III- enter the EU. Almost 60 years after the armistice, Europe is united like never before, and Switzerland is still on the sideline.

Not now- come back in a decade…

One thing is clear– if Switzerland does eventually join the EU, it won’t be for a while. In a referendum on 4 March 2001, beginning accession negotiations was defeated by a 3:1 margin. In some cantons the vote was as high as 93 percent against. Such a ringing defeat for Swiss EU-boosters was tough to swallow, and set the prospects of EU membership for the Swiss back perhaps for decades.

“Optimistically it won’t be for at least 10 years. Once we have the experience with the bilateral agreements [negotiated by the Swiss government and the EU to facilitate trade, etc.] we will reevaluate the situation,” says Urs Hammer, Information Officer of the Swiss Mission to the European Union in Brussels.

What’s the holdup? This isn’t the Balkans. Switzerland is a developed country, in the center of Western Europe. For such a modern society, the Swiss have an almost primal fear of losing sovereignty, and many feel that joining the EU would mean turning much of their power over to the Brussels Eurocrats. The time-honored Swiss tradition of direct democracy would give way to British and Belgian MEP’s. But is Switzerland a quasi-member already?

“Switzerland is almost considered a passive member state already,” argues Petra Studer, spokeswoman for the Free Democrats, one of the largest factions in the Swiss Parliament. “It’s basically there, but doesn’t participate.”

Perhaps this is the case. Over 80% of Swiss exports go to EU nations, and Swiss manufacturers must follow the safety and quality directives of Brussels, even though they are not legally bound to do so. Refusing to would be economic suicide.

The nature of the Swiss direct democracy has also been a bar to EU membership. In the more urban cantons- Zurich, Basel, and Geneva, support is far higher for integration than in the country. Cantons like Schwyz, Un and Obwalden appear to be channeling William Tell, the legendary Swiss patriot who rid his country of oppressors,

“For any decision we must have a majority of both the people and the cantons. There are many small and rural cantons that are very powerful. A vote in Zurich has perhaps 200 times less power than that of someone who lives in a rural Canton,” says Studer.

But the Swiss EU dilemma isn’t just political– It might be chronological.

“There seems to be a kind of generation divide,” says Matias Levin, Research Fellow at the Brussels-based Center for European Policy Studies. “The older generation is quite happy with their exclusiveness, while the younger one wants to embrace integration. It will take time– the society is truly divided.”

Unlike their European brethren, the Swiss haven’t been torn apart by war in hundreds of years. The average wealth is far lower in the EU than in the financial powerhouse of Switzerland. The expression, “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it,” would seem applicable. The Swiss are doing just fine on their own, thank you very much.

Who wins, and who loses?

There are clear arguments for why Switzerland should get off the fence, and become a Union member. The most obvious is representation; although not a member, because of its geographical and economic position virtually everything that Brussels does has repercussions for the Swiss. Switzerland has no opportunity to voice its concerns– EU membership would change that. The bilateral agreements negotiated in 1999 are already becoming obsolete in some areas, particularly scientific research- if Switzerland were to join the EU, these would no longer be stumbling blocks.

The EU stands to benefit from a Swiss entry as well. On a strictly economic level, Switzerland would be a net contributor, along with the Netherlands, Germany, and others. The EU could learn a lot from Switzerland politically, as an ancient (and very successful) confederation of four peoples and four languages the Swiss seem to have a good grasp on operating a multicultural union.

“The long tradition of direct democracy has served us well. The EU is always welcome to look at our system and analyze,” says Hammer.

Both sides could wind up losers in an expanded EU, though. Under the Common Agricultural Policy are businessmen in Zurich willing to support farmers in Krakow ? Switzerland will definitely give far more than it gets from the EU. The Swiss would have to abandon, or at least adapt, many of their traditions to an EU world- the most obvious of these are the renowned secret bank accounts. The EU has already threatened sanctions to force Switzerland to open its books to help catch tax-evading European citizens. European taxation and internal market commissioner Frits Bolkestein, wrote a strongly worded piece in the Financial Times October 7, saying, “We are asking the most normal thing in the world from the Swiss authorities, namely to help ensure that EU citizens pay their taxes.” Violating this trust is taboo to many in the Swiss financial sector– currently both parties are in a deadlock.

If the Swiss ever do join the EU, Brussels might come to regret it.

“You could compare the Swiss position towards supranational integration with England, Denmark, and Sweden. Belgium and France in particular are leaning towards some sort of federal status, while other members see the EU more as an organization for intergovernmental free trade,” suggests Levin. “Adding Switzerland to the EU would shift the balance more towards the former position. From this point of view Switzerland wouldn’t be an ideal member,”

Hiding in the Alps?

Switzerland has previously been content to sit on the sidelines. Aside from a brief foray into the League of Nations in the early part of the 20th century, the Swiss have shunned membership in international organizations. In recent years, however, Switzerland has joined the World Bank, WTO, and to the astonishment of many, the United Nations. Because of its geographic and financial position, was Switzerland ever truly cut off?

“ With our economic integration it’s clear that it isn’t possible to isolate Switzerland,” says Studer.

In the meantime the drive toward 2004 continues; how will the EU’s enlargement affect Swiss attitudes?

“It will certainly contribute to sense of exclusion. Switzerland is already surrounded, an island in the midst of EU member states. A successful integration would probably put membership back on the table. Enlargement will only add to existing pressures,” says Levin.

Maybe eventually?

Superpowers such as the US, China, and the EU have an influence in world affairs- Switzerland doesn’t. If the Swiss want to have any voice in the future of the world, and avoid being pushed around by Brussels, it would seem they have no choice but to join the Union.

“ I think the moment Switzerland decides to become a full member will be when Swiss citizens realize that they will lose more sovereignty if they don’t join,” says Studer.

In the meantime, however, Switzerland is a founding member of another one of Europe’s most exclusive clubs– European without the EU. 5 years from now, only Turkey and the Balkans will join them. Meanwhile, there is no sign of World War III on the horizon, and the march of European integration goes on– will Switzerland be a part of it? Maybe, but it won’t be for a while.